The player places a bet. If the bet doesn't win, they increase the amount and bet on the same event in another match. If the bet wins, the player regains the amount they lost in previous iterations of the strategy and end up with more money.
How do I increase bet amounts if I'm chasing?
S = (X + Y) รท (k - 1)
This is the chasing formula. It helps determine the optimal amount that won't harm your bank and will recoup costs if it wins.
If for each loss you increase the bet by a small amount, then the final win won't recoup what you lost. However, if each time the amount is doubled or more and the player has a prolonged series of losses, they risk losing their entire bank and not recouping losses.
Chasing strategy example with football
- You bet EUR 10 on a draw inaTottenham match Odds: 3.00 Potential winnings: EUR 30 The bet loses
- You bet on a draw in the next Tottenham match Odds: 2.00 Bet amount calculation: (30 + 10) รท (2.00 - 1) = EUR 40 The bet loses
- Then you bet on another draw inthenext Tottenham match Odds: 3.50 Bet amount calculation: (30 + 10 + 40) รท (3.50 - 1) = EUR 32 The bet wins and you win EUR 112
The net profit of all your bets:
EUR
30. To calculate it, we deducted all the money wagered from the winnings: 112 - (10 + 40 + 32) = 30.What are the best odds to choose?
2.00 or higher. With odds of 2.00, the bet amount will double each time, but at higher odds, it will increase less than twice. With low odds, the size of the bet will grow significantly each time, and the bank will shrink.
Let's consider an increase in the bet amount using the example of three betting chains with odds of 1.50, 2.00 and 3.00.
1.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
1 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
2 | 500 | 300 | 200 |
3 | 1,500 | 600 | 300 |
4 | 4,500 | 1,200 | 450 |
5 | 13,500 | 2,400 | 675 |
When chasing with odds of 1.50, the fifth bet increased to EUR 13,500, and in total during the strategy you bet EUR 20,100. In the strategy with odds of 2.00, you bet EUR 4,600, and EUR 1,725 with odds of 3.00
What is the downside to chasing?
You need a large pot to chase. Since the amount of the bet grows depending on the odds, the total amount of bets during the strategy can grow up to
EUR
10-20 thousand. For example, if you are betting on selections with odds of 2.00, you will bet EUR
4,600 on the 6th bet, and EUR
28,400 on the 8th bet. To estimate how many bets you will have enough money for, model the strategy based on the average odds you choose most often. If your pot is large enough for at least 6-7 bets, this strategy should work for you.Chasing is not a risk-free strategy. If your losing streak drags on, then you run the risk of losing your maximum bet size. In this case, you will not be able to place a bet based on the strategy and you will not recoup your losses. The maximum bet amount depends on the popularity of the tournament and sport. Also, the maximum depends on individual account limits.
Examples of the chasing strategies with different sports
Players use chasing regardless of the sport because it fits all kinds of tournaments and matches.
Chasing in football
One betting strategy in football is draw chasing. Usually a draw is estimated with odds of 3.00, so the bet size will grow slowly. However, the frequency of a draw in the top championships averages 25%, so roughly every fourth match ends in a draw.
Chasing in hockey
In hockey, you can use chasing to bet on period totals in NHL matches. Players bet on a total over 1.5 in the first period, and if they lose, they place bets on a total over 1.5 in the second period, and so on through the third period. If the match ends but no bet won, then the player uses the same bet amount for the next match.
This strategy is based on statistics: in about 80% of NHL matches, at least one period ends with a total over 1.5 goals. Choose teams that score a lot to increase your chances of winning. If you know a lot about NHL teams, then try betting on matches with teams that do not score a lot so the odds will be higher, resulting in the bet amount growing more slowly.
Chasing in tennis
In tennis, chasing is used in Live when betting on a score of 40:40 in a game. The player places a bet, and if it loses, they increase the amount and bet again on 40:40. To make your strategy successful, here are a few tips:
- Choose matches in women's tennis. Tennis players are less likely to win games on their serve, so a score of 40:40 is more common among women than men.
- Choose matches on clay or grass courts. Due to this "slower" coverage, it is harder for tennis players to win on their serve and there are more chances that the opponent will end the game in a draw.
- Bet on the start of sets. If one of the tennis players is leading by a lot, then the opponent is unlikely to fight back hard, instead preferring to save their energy for the next set. In this case, there is a minimum probability that the match will end with a score of 40:40.
How to win more with the chasing strategy?
Analyze events.
If you want to shorten your losing streak, study the statistics of the participants in the match you want to bet on. The sooner your bet wins, the faster you will recoup the money you lost and make a profit. In an ideal chasing strategy, you will win the first or second bet.
Select odds up to 5.00.
With high odds, the cost of chasing grows slowly, but the likelihood of such bets winning is too low. A losing streak can drag on, and your bank will not be big enough to win everything you lost back. For example, a bet with odds of 5.00 only has a 20% chance of winnings, which means that every fifth bet will win. If you place the first bet for EUR 1,000, then by the fifth bet, the cost of the strategy will shoot up to EUR 10,000, and up to EUR 100,000 by the tenth bet.
Do not use chasing in matches where the team or athlete has a long winning or losing streak.
Sometimes these series can drag on for a long time: for example, in the 2018/19 Premier League season, Tottenham only drew twice (the first time in the 29th round), and the Italian national team in 2021 set the world record for an undefeated run among national teams with 36 matches in a row.
Where did the term "chasing" come from?
Chasing is a variation of the Martingale
strategy. It came to sports betting from the casino, where players bet on equally probable events, for example, whether the ball will fall on black or white. In the event of a loss, the player doubled their bet amount, and when they won, they recouped the entire amount lost. However, this strategy was not very successful because the 0 on the roulette wheel made the chances of the ball landing on black and white 48:48, not 50:50.
The Martingale strategy is used in betting. There are several variations: players can double their bet if they lose, or increase the amount according to a system, for example 1โ2โ4โ8โ16โ32โ64. The disadvantage of the Martingale strategy is that it does not take odds into account. For example, if a player bets on selections with odds of 1.50, then if they win, they will not recoup what they lost. When betting on high odds, players place unreasonably high odds that quickly drain their bank.
Chasing does not have the disadvantages of the Martingale strategy. The bet amount is adjusted so the higher the odds, the lower the bet amount. The size of the bet is always justified because it is exactly what is needed to recoup losses and earn the player a profit.