Matches and tournaments can have outsiders. A tournament outsider is unlikely to end in a top place. In elimination games, these participants are usually eliminated from the tournament in the early stages, and in championships and group stages are at the bottom of the table.
Outsiders are determined as such based on each specific match. For example, if an average club from England plays a team from, for example, Slovakia, then the Slovaks will be outsiders. If the same average English club plays against the champion of Spain or Germany, then the English club will be the outsider.
Every tournament has its outsiders. When forming the tournament bracket, organisers like to spread out strong participants to avoid them getting knocked out in the early stages. This makes the competition more interesting to watch.
What makes a group especially tough?
Sometimes there are more top teams in the group stage of a tournament than places available to advance to the next round. There is usually at least one outsider in these groups because the tournament groups are formed from teams of different strength. In this combination, the favourites fight hard to reach the next stage, and the outsider has practically no chance of winning.
At Euro 2020, there were three top teams in Group F: Germany, France and Portugal. The fourth team in this group was Hungary, who as expected, took last place and was eliminated from the tournament.
Do outsiders always lose?
No. Despite low odds, outsiders sometimes win and even become champions. There are several explanations for this. For example, a lack of motivation or underestimation on the part of favourites, or just lucky coincidence.
Favourites might set their priorities incorrectly. For example, if a team is competing in several tournaments at the same time, then it will probably focus on just one of them and be eliminated early in the lower priority tournament.
The UEFA Europa League is regarded by top clubs as a minor tournament. The prize money is not great, so the strong teams are eliminated in the early stages to save their energy for the other tournaments. For example, in the 2020-21 LE season, Leicester was eliminated by Slavia in the 1/16 finals, while Tottenham lost to Dynamo Zagreb in the 1/8.
Favourites are also known to underestimate their opponents. Outsiders prepare to face off against strong clubs extra hard, as a win will increase the prestige of the team and increase its visibility in the tournament's info field. For a favourite, this match might not have any significance at all, so they do not have much motivation to win.
In the final matches of the group stage of the 2020-21 Champions League, Chelsea and Krasnodar faced off. Chelsea had already guaranteed its way out of the group stage, but it was important for Krasnodar to score points to reach the spring section of the European cups. The British sent out a semi-reserve team for the match to save the strength of their leaders, while the Russians played their starting lineup and forced a draw.
Tournaments also sometimes have what's called "lucky losers". These are outsiders who were supposed to be eliminated during the elimination stage, but stayed in on a technicality, for example, the disqualification or illness of another participant.
The best example of a "lucky loser" is the Danish national team at Euro 1992. The Danes took second place in the qualifying stage and were not supposed to even make it to the tournament. Then four days before the start of the Euro, the organisers removed the Yugoslav national team for political reasons, and Denmark took its place. At the time, no one even considered Denmark a contender, especially given their lack of preparation, but then the Danes became European champions for the first time in history.
Why and how to bet on outsiders?
An outsider bet win brings a significant profit. Due to the high odds, even a bet on the weaker team not losing at least doubles the bet size.
Use the chasing strategy
The drawback of outsider bets is the low chances of winning. To avoid this the players use strategies that allow them to win back in the case of a loss and to gain profit as a result.
Chasing is a strategy when a player keeps placing a bet on a certain event until it wins. A player can use chasing when placing bets on the same participant or when choosing a new one. At every new bet the player raises the bet amount on the basis of the following formula:
S = (X + Y) รท (k - 1)
- S โ bet amount
- X โ estimated winnings from the first bet
- Y โ amount lost during the strategy
- k โ odds of the selected event
The chasing formula helps to calculate the bet amount to ensure that the win bet wins back the lost amount and brings profit. If you increase the bet amount at random, then you will either remain "in the red" or spend the bank too fast.
When choosing outsiders the chasing strategy works better than with bets on events with low or medium odds. The reason is that the bet amount grows depending on the odds of the chosen event: the higher the odds the less you bet.
Let's compare how the chasing amount grows in the case of bets on the events with the odds 1.50 and 3.00. The amount of the first bet โ
EUR
1000.Odds 1.50 | Odds 3.00 | |
1st bet | EUR 100 | EUR 100 |
2nd bet | EUR | EUR 200 |
3rd bet | EUR 1,500 | EUR 300 |
4th bet | EUR | EUR 450 |
5th bet | EUR 13,500 | EUR 675 |
When choosing odds of 1.50 the bet amount has grown to
EUR
13,500 although we have spent only EUR
20,100. With odds of 3.00 the bet amount has reached only EUR
675, with the total of EUR
1,725.Take a closer look at a bet that an outsider cannot lose.
Bets on an outsider not losing win more often than bets on an outsider winning, but the win amount is smaller. Such bets should be placed only after analysis of the upcoming match.
Take into account the motivation and the priorities of the participants.
It also happens that the match outcome may not be important for the favourite. It is possible that a more important match is ahead and the team wants to retain its strength before it. Or it may be that the stronger team has already reached its seasonal objectives and is playing the remaining matches without full energy. In such matches an outsider may force a draw or even win. Weaker teams always have an incentive to play. A win over the favourite can bring more fans to the stadium, raise the team image and give the scores needed to leave the relegation zone or to obtain a middle position in the tournament table.
Analyze the results of the previous matches of the top clubs.
In championships there are often teams that cannot compete for the top positions but on the other hand they are good at taking points away from the favourites. There can be a variety of reasons behind it โ an inconvenient playing style or special motivation when facing a strong opponent. For instance, the EPL novice, Leeds, gained 10 points in 12 matches with the Top-5 England clubs in the 2020/21 season: 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses.