Betting strategies on help assess team performance and make the right choice. Players use these strategies for events where it's difficult to predict the winner.
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Total over 1.5
This strategy is useful thanks to its versatility. Only two goals need to be scored for a bet on total over 1.5, so any score other than 0:0, 0:1 and 1:0 will win.
Choose high scoring tournaments
Championships where more than one goal per game is often scored, such as the Premier League, German Bundesliga and Dutch Eredivisie, are suitable. In these tournaments, teams are accustomed to playing aggressive football, and few clubs rely on defensive tactics.
Total over 1.5 took place in 8 out of 10 Serie A matches, in RPL – in 7 out of 10
Find teams that score or concede a lot
When looking at the statistics, pay special attention to a team's conceded goals. Teams that score and concede at least one goal per game on average are best.
A large number of goals conceded is indicative of persistent defense issues, including individual player mistakes, poor teamwork and weak tactics. If a team is weak on defense, they consistently concede goals against any opponent, regardless of their style of play or tournament motivation.
Avoid bets on matches between rivals
These matches have unpredictable results that don't depend on previous statistics. Such games often end with a low total, as both teams play cautiously and avoid risks.
In 2019, two of the four matches between Real Madrid and Barcelona ended with a total of less than 1.5. But in all of their other La Liga games, both teams scored an average of almost 3 goals per match. Photo: Christian Bertrand / shutterstock.com
Pick teams with different motivations
Matches between teams in the top three and mid-ranked teams who play aggressive football work well. In these matches, the favourites need to win to stay on top, and the opposing teams are fighting for prestige. It's important for them to play a good game and score at least one point, so matches usually end with a large number of offensive plays and goals scored.
Total over 3.5 and 4.5
This strategy is situational and won't work for most matches, even in the highest scoring championships. For this bet to win, both teams need to play often with a high total. The main advantage of this strategy is its high .
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Find matches with highly unmatched teams
In such matches, the favourite can focus on their offensive potential without serious resistance from their opponent. Matches where this bet wins are most often played by an aggressive team from the top 5 and a team on the verge of being out of the tournament. It's best to pick matches where one of the teams scores at least two goals per game on average, and the other concedes the same amount.
In the 2018–19 Premier League season, 15 of Manchester City's 38 games ended with a total of over 3.5. Man City's opponents were teams below sixth place in the standings in 13 out of 15 of these games. Photo: Cosmin Iftode / shutterstock.com
Pick matches that don't affect tournament standings
It's best to bet on a large total in the middle of the season, when teams are in optimal shape. Also, it's easier to analyze statistics in the middle of the season, because teams have already played enough games to objectively assess their average performance and form.
Check out the upcoming match schedule for a favourite
If a team has an important game coming up in a cup, international tournament or a match against a rival, the coach will most likely protect the best players by replacing them early or leaving them on the bench.
Second half total larger than the first
This strategy is based on the fact that second halves are usually higher scoring than the first. This difference is due to many factors, including teams being cautious at the start of the game, coach attitudes, and player fatigue towards the end of the match.
Choose important matches
If a match is decisive for a tournament, the teams will most likely not focus on offense at the start of a game, as this increases the risk of conceding after a counter attack.
The first halves of important matches often start with reconnaissance. The teams study their opponent's tactics, assess weaknesses and try not to accidentally concede a goal. The pace picks up in the second half as teams get new instructions from their coach and start to build up the pressure to secure a win.
Bet on European competitions
Champions League and Europa League matches are different to national championships, with even more careful gameplay in the first half. This happens because the teams have very little experience in playing each other.
During the 2019–20 UEFA Champions League group stage, 143 goals were scored in first half and 197 in the second.
Teams are under a lot of pressure to score before it's too late. In a championship, one draw or defeat doesn't affect the tournament standings very much. But in European competitions, one bad match may mean a team won't reach the next stage.
On an even total and TO 2.5 in Live
This strategy is for Live bets. The player watches the match, and if in the first half one of the teams scores a goal, then the player bets the same amount on two single bets: on an even score and total over 2.5.
If two goals are scored, the bet on an even score will win, and if three or more goals are scored, the TO 2.5 bet will win. If the number of goals is even and more than two, then both bets will win. The only option where the player loses on both bets is if the match ends with only one goal scored.
Find a match where both teams score an average number of points
When both teams achieve a high score, the bet odds for a total over 2.5 will be too low. Then there's a risk of ending up in the red if it's the only bet that wins. When both teams are low scorers, the chances are too high that the teams will only score one goal in total, meaning both bets will lose.
Matches where both teams score at least one goal and concede the same amount will work the best. You can see how the teams usually play by checking out their stats or the TO 2.5 odds: if Pre-Match sets them at around 2.00, then the match is a good fit.
Rate the significance of the match
It's best to choose matches where the opponents won't be too constrained by tournament standings or potential image risks. For example, if a match will decide the fate of both teams in the championship and whether they will keep their place, then the leading club will be on the defensive to stop their opponent from scoring and taking the lead. In these matches, two goals are rarely scored. Derbies aren't a great option either, as they're difficult to predict and equally likely to end in a shut out or without any points scored at all.
Rate how well the opponents play after a goal
You shouldn't necessarily bet as soon as a goal is scored. It's often the case that after a goal in the first half, the following happens: the team that conceded the goal starts to fall apart (the players can't organise any real offense), and the scoring team tries to defend their half of the field to protect the score. In this case, there's a high probability that the match will end with just one goal scored.
To increase the likelihood your bet will win, watch for another 5–10 minutes after the goal and figure out how likely it is for the teams to score at least once more.
If you're feeling confident in your prediction, bet in Pre-Match
After the first goal is scored, the total odds of more than 2.5 will fall. If you're confident that the teams will score at least two goals, then place your bet with high odds before the match. As well as earning you more, this approach increases the risks because for at least one of the bets to win, at least two goals need to be scored, and not just one like with Live bets.