Betting strategies for tennis matches help increase your long-term winnings and Single bet success. We'll reveal how to pick matches and place bets based on an analysis of opponents, court surfaces and .
match statistics
1. Chasing a score of 40:40
2. "Ladder" for the server to win the game
3. Bets on a favourite win by shut out
Chasing a score of 40:40
This strategy works well for bets on games with evenly matched athletes. A players bets on a score of 40:40. If the bet loses, the player increases their wager according to the formula and bets on the same score again.
chasing
The chasing formula helps increase your bank enough so that if a bet wins, the player earns a profit. Here's the chasing formula:(x + y) ÷ (k - 1)
If a bet wins, the player's winnings compensate for the amount lost during previous stages of the strategy.
Strategy fundamentals
- Check out how both opponents are playing inor in the first sets inpre-match.Live
- Bet 1–2% of your bank on a score of 40:40.
- If the bet loses, increase your wager based on the chasing formula, and place your next bet.
- If the bet wins, you can end the strategy.
Place bets on women's tennis matches
Athletes often win on their serve in men's tennis, so 40:40 isn't as common as in women's tournaments.
Stick to tournaments with clay or carpet surfaces
These games usually have slower play, it's easier for the receiver to counter their opponent's serve, and athletes are more equal. It's easier for athletes to score points when serving on a grass court or hard court, so the serving player will have the advantage in every set.
Bet on prestigious tournament matches
Prestigious tournaments include Grand Slam tournaments, ATP Masters 1000, and WTA Premier Mandatory. They have a large enough prize pool so that both opponents are motivated to win and advance to the next round.
Compare opponents in pre-match
The odds for match outcomes should be approximately the same. Check out the opponents' performance in 1–2 games to minimize risks. If both athletes are performing similarly well, the match is good to bet on.
Bet at the start of sets and with the same number of games won
In these cases, the athletes will certainly be playing to win. If the gap in won games is too high, for example 3:0 or 5:2, the losing player will most likely choose to save their energy for the next set and won't give it their all.
Strategy example
Consider the match between Kiki Bertens and Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open. The match was on a hard court, both players looked equal in strength, and the score after the first two games was 1:1.
- Bet – EUR 10 for a score of 40:40 in the third gameOdds – 3.00Loss, score 30:40
- Bet – EUR 16 for a score of 40:40 in the fourth gameOdds – 3.50Loss, score 40:0
- Bets – EUR 28 for a score of 40:40 in the fifth gameOdds – 3.00Loss, score 0:40
- Bet – EUR 33,6 for a score of 40:40 in the sixth gameOdds – 3.50Win – EUR 117,6.
You wagered a total of EUR 87,6 during this strategy, and the net winnings were EUR 30.
The series went on for so long because Australian Open matches are played on hard courts, which are a 'fast' surface where the server has an advantage. Up until the sixth game, both players won their serves. If we had chosen a match with a 'slow' clay surface, the chasing strategy would have most likely ended earlier.
"Ladder" for the server to win the game
A ladder is a series of several bets on events with low odds. In tennis, bets on the athlete winning the game on their serve work best for a ladder.
According to the statistics, players win games on their serve in 4 out of 5 cases (80% probability of winning) in men's tennis. Due to these high chances, the odds of such bets usually don't exceed 1.40.
Strategy fundamentals
- Bet 1–3% of your bank on the player winning on their serve. The odds should not exceed 1.40.
- If the bet wins, wager the entire amount won on a different player winning a game on their serve, either in this match or another one.
- If you've earned enough of a profit, you can complete the strategy. If you've never bet on tennis before, we recommend stopping after a series of four or five wins in a row.
Bet on tournament matches on grass or hard courts
These are considered 'fast' surfaces, where it's harder for the receiver to react to the rebound after the serve. It's easier to receive serves on clay and synthetic surfaces, so the server won't have a serious advantage.
Bet on matches in men's tennis
The serves are slower in women's tennis, so the receiver is more likely to win games. In addition, a lot of female tennis players don't have stable serves.
Karolína Plíšková, 3rd place in the WTA ranking, has one of the strongest serves in women's tennis. In her US Open match against Ons Jabeur (39th place in the ranking), Plíšková only won 58% of the games on her serve. Photo: Leonard Zhukovsky / shutterstock.com
Avoid odds that are too low
If two opponents have a significant difference in class, bets on the favourite winning on their serve will have odds of about 1.10. These odds don't guarantee that the bet will win, and the potential winnings are too low to risk betting your entire bank.
Bets on a favourite win by shut out
This strategy works well if you want to bet on a match favourite, but you're not satisfied with the low odds. In this case, choose a bet for the favorite to win with a score of 2:0 or 3:0.
For example, if pre-match offers a favourite win with odds of 1.10, then their win with a score of 2:0 will have odds of about 1.40.
Study the head-to-head statistics
The favorite should shut out their opponent in at least 50% of their matches. But even top tennis players have low-rated opponents which they have trouble playing against.
Check what surface the favourite performs best on
In most cases, a player's style works well on one type of surface but not on the others. For example, Rafael Nadal prefers clay courts, while Daniil Medvedev shows poor results on them.
Understand the opponents' motivation
The top 5 tennis players make it their goal for the season to win Grand Slam titles, which are the four annual tournaments held in Australia, France, England and the United States. They don't try their hardest in less prestigious tournaments, because the prize money and prestige are too low, and the likelihood of injury is too high.
However, tennis players from the bottom of the rankings strive to win minor championships since it's an opportunity to gain a title and points in the ranking. Therefore, Masters tournaments are often won by athletes who aren't in the top 10 of the ATP ranking.
Live bets after the first set
Matches with equally matched opponents work well for this strategy, where winning odds are typically equal: from 1.75 to 1.95.
You watch the first set and keep an eye on the odds. After the set, you bet on the victory of the losing tennis player when the odds are approximately 4.00–5.00.
If in the second set the losing tennis player evens the score, the odds return to the original odds, allowing the bet to be insured by betting on the other tennis player to win. The bet size must be calculated in such a way that the potential winnings are greater than the sum of both bets. In this case, the bet will be risk-free because no matter the outcome of the match, there bet makes a profit.
Strategy principle
- Rate the tennis players in Pre-Match. Theodds onwho wins should bepretty much equal.
- After the first set, bet onthelosing player towin.
- If the score is even after the second set, then bet onthesecond player towin. Set thebet size insuch away that ifitwins, itcovers both bets.
Watch how the tennis players perform in the first set
Equal odds do not mean that the players are equally matched. There are other factors that are not so obvious. For example, one of the players was injured before the match, so they will not win a single set or will be removed from the match altogether. If one of the players starts playing noticeably badly in the first set, you will have time to figure out if you should bet on the match, or is it better not to risk it.
Watch the serves
Sets consist of games, and in each game the tennis player who serves changes. It is easier for a tennis player to score on their serve because they are in control of the game. If a tennis player loses their serves in the first set, then it will be harder for them later, since the losses will affect them negatively psychologically, while their opponent will sense an advantage and score more. If in the first set one of the tennis players keeps losing on their serve, then they probably will not be able to win in the second. In this case, it is better to not bet and find another match instead.